The ask was simple: should we expand to Southeast Asia? The answer took 8 weeks and covered 3 markets, 40 user interviews, and one board presentation.
Growth in the core markets was healthy but starting to plateau. The leadership team had identified Southeast Asia as a potential expansion market — specifically Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines. But "Southeast Asia" is not a strategy. The question was: where exactly, for whom, and how?
I was asked to lead the market analysis and produce a board-ready recommendation. I worked with an external research partner for the in-market interviews and a data analyst for the quantitative sizing work. Timeline: 8 weeks from kickoff to final presentation.
I structured the analysis around three questions that any expansion decision needs to answer:
The three markets looked very different on paper but had one important thing in common: the primary competitive threat wasn't a product — it was habit. Users in all three markets had deeply ingrained workarounds for the problem we solve.
The key insight from interviews: Price sensitivity was real but not the primary barrier. Users were willing to pay if they trusted the product and if the switching cost from their current workaround felt justified. That meant our GTM model needed to lead with trust-building, not conversion.
Indonesia emerged as the clearest first market: largest TAM, most developed digital payments infrastructure, and the highest existing familiarity with comparable product categories.
"We weren't choosing between three good options. We were choosing which option to prove out first, and building the model that makes the next two easier."
A phased approach: Indonesia in Year 1 as the proof-of-concept market, with Vietnam and Philippines gated on Year 1 KPIs. Each phase had clear entry criteria, a defined GTM model, and a localisation scope.
I presented three scenarios (conservative, base, optimistic) with explicit assumptions documented for each. The board approved the base case with a Year 1 budget unlocked immediately and Year 2–3 funding contingent on hitting Year 1 metrics.
The APAC expansion recommendation as presented to the C-suite. Covers market sizing, competitive landscape, phased GTM plan, and three financial scenarios.
Phased entry plan with clear KPI gates between markets.
Year 1 budget approved and team hiring initiated.
Across all 3 markets, conducted with local research partner.
Market expansion analyses are often too optimistic because they're built by people who want the answer to be yes. I tried to make this one useful by being explicit about what would need to be true for each scenario, and by surfacing the risks that could make the conservative case the reality.
The phased model also matters for a different reason: it gives the company a way to be wrong safely. If Indonesia Year 1 underperforms, the gating criteria means we don't overcommit to the next two markets before we've learned what we need to learn.